JY 持仓导航系统

flowchart LR
    M1["M1 平稳期\nVIX<22 油价<$85\n正常配置 按个股地图操作"]
    M2["📍 M2 波动期（当前）\nVIX 27.55 油价$110\n停止加仓 提高警觉"]
    M3["🔴 M3 危机期\nVIX>30 油价>$100\n成长股减仓 防守加强 现金提升"]
    M4["🟢 M4 复苏期\nVIX从高位回落 市场超跌\n逢低加仓优质资产"]

    M1 -->|"地缘升级 / 油价突破$85\n/ VIX连续3天>22"| M2
    M2 -->|"冲突降级 / 油价回落<$80\n/ VIX回落<20"| M1
    M2 -->|"霍尔木兹封锁 / 油价>$100\n/ VIX>30 / 地面部队"| M3
    M3 -->|"停火协议 / 油价回落\n/ VIX从>30降到<25"| M4
    M4 -->|"市场企稳\n恐慌完全消退"| M1
    M3 -->|"战争长期化(>3个月)\n全球滞胀成形"| M3

    style M1 fill:#1565c0,color:#fff,stroke:#0d47a1,stroke-width:2px
    style M2 fill:#e65100,color:#fff,stroke:#bf360c,stroke-width:3px
    style M3 fill:#b71c1c,color:#fff,stroke:#b71c1c,stroke-width:2px
    style M4 fill:#1b5e20,color:#fff,stroke:#1b5e20,stroke-width:2px

flowchart TD
    NOW["📍 当前：M2波动期\n油价$110已破M3线 VIX 27.55\n卡塔尔LNG设施被袭"]
    NOW --> Q{"3个月后 6月：\n战争走向？"}

    Q -->|"停火/伊朗政权更迭\n快速收场"| A["场景A 快速结束\n概率 20%"]
    Q -->|"伊朗不对称抵抗\n胡塞式消耗战"| B["场景B 被动拖长\n概率 50%"]
    Q -->|"美国刻意维持高油价\n能源牌制约中国"| C["场景C 刻意拉长\n概率 30%"]

    A --> A1["宏观路径：M1→M2短暂→M1\n组合影响：有限"]
    B --> B1["宏观路径：M1→M2→可能M3\n组合影响：中等\n3-12个月高油价"]
    C --> C1["宏观路径：M1→M2→M3长期\n组合影响：严重\n全球滞胀 交易主线改变"]

    style NOW fill:#1565c0,color:#fff,stroke:#0d47a1,stroke-width:3px
    style A fill:#1b5e20,color:#fff,stroke:#1b5e20,stroke-width:2px
    style B fill:#e65100,color:#fff,stroke:#bf360c,stroke-width:2px
    style C fill:#b71c1c,color:#fff,stroke:#b71c1c,stroke-width:2px

pie title 未来12个月最可能的宏观状态
    "M1 维持平稳 20%" : 20
    "M2 波动期为主 35%" : 35
    "M3 短期危机后复苏 15%" : 15
    "M3 长期滞胀 20%" : 20
    "M4 危机后机会 10%" : 10

flowchart LR
    S1["📍 S1 当前状态\n多品牌增长+估值低位\nPE 14-16x | 价格 78-90"]
    S2["🟢 S2 增长加速\nPE 18-22x\n价格 100-130"]
    S3["🟡 S3 现金奶牛\nPE 12-15x\n价格 72-90"]
    S4["🔴 S4 整合困局\nPE 10-12x\n价格 60-72"]

    S1 -->|"主品牌恢复\n+ Puma协同可见"| S2
    S1 -->|"增速平庸\n常态化 +8-10%"| S3
    S1 -->|"Puma受阻\n+ 利润率下滑"| S4
    S3 -.->|"Puma突然展现协同"| S2
    S4 -.->|"交易取消 + 回收现金"| S1

    style S1 fill:#1565c0,color:#fff,stroke:#0d47a1,stroke-width:3px
    style S2 fill:#1b5e20,color:#fff,stroke:#1b5e20,stroke-width:2px
    style S3 fill:#e65100,color:#fff,stroke:#bf360c,stroke-width:2px
    style S4 fill:#b71c1c,color:#fff,stroke:#b71c1c,stroke-width:2px

flowchart TD
    A["3/25 年报发布"] --> B{"核心NP = ?"}

    B -->|"145亿以上\n+ 乐观指引"| C["🟢 S1偏强\nPE 15-17x | 价格 85-95"]
    B -->|"135 ~ 145亿\n+ 中性指引"| D["🟡 维持 S1\nPE 14-16x | 价格 80-88"]
    B -->|"不足130亿\n或利润率下滑"| E["🔴 S1偏弱\nPE 13-15x | 价格 75-82"]

    C --> F["下一步：Q1流水验证增长"]
    D --> G["下一步：维持现状，等Puma"]
    E --> H["下一步：利润率是一次性还是趋势？"]

    F --> I(["→ 分叉点② Q1流水 5月"])
    G --> J(["→ 分叉点③ Puma审批 H1"])
    H --> K(["→ 分叉点④ 中报 8月"])

    style C fill:#1b5e20,color:#fff,stroke:#1b5e20,stroke-width:2px
    style D fill:#e65100,color:#fff,stroke:#bf360c,stroke-width:2px
    style E fill:#b71c1c,color:#fff,stroke:#b71c1c,stroke-width:2px
    style I fill:#0d47a1,color:#fff,stroke:#0d47a1,stroke-width:2px
    style J fill:#0d47a1,color:#fff,stroke:#0d47a1,stroke-width:2px
    style K fill:#0d47a1,color:#fff,stroke:#0d47a1,stroke-width:2px

flowchart TD
    subgraph from_strong ["来自年报超预期"]
        A1["Q1主品牌增速?"] -->|"正增长"| B1["🟢 加强S2预期"]
        A1 -->|"负增长"| C1["🟡 回到S1"]
    end
    subgraph from_neutral ["来自年报符合/低于预期"]
        A2["Q1主品牌增速?"] -->|"正增长"| B2["🟢 S1修复"]
        A2 -->|"负增长"| C2["🔴 滑向S3"]
    end
    B1 --> D(["持有，可考虑加仓"])
    C1 --> E(["维持现有仓位"])
    B2 --> F(["持有，情绪改善"])
    C2 --> G(["⚠️ 等中报最终确认"])
    style B1 fill:#1b5e20,color:#fff,stroke:#1b5e20,stroke-width:2px
    style B2 fill:#1b5e20,color:#fff,stroke:#1b5e20,stroke-width:2px
    style C1 fill:#e65100,color:#fff,stroke:#bf360c,stroke-width:2px
    style C2 fill:#b71c1c,color:#fff,stroke:#b71c1c,stroke-width:2px

flowchart TD
    A["Puma审批进展"] --> B{"欧盟/德国态度?"}
    B -->|"顺利推进\n多国无异议"| C["🟢 S2催化剂加速"]
    B -->|"延迟但可控\n补充资料"| D["🟡 S1维持不变"]
    B -->|"重大障碍\n反垄断挑战"| E["🔴 S4风险升级"]
    C --> F{"同时Q1流水好?"}
    F -->|"是"| G["✅ 确认进入S2"]
    F -->|"否"| H["S1偏强，等中报"]
    E --> I{"收购可能失败?"}
    I -->|"回收122亿现金"| J["估值可能反弹"]
    I -->|"违约金损失"| K["确认S4"]
    style C fill:#1b5e20,color:#fff,stroke:#1b5e20,stroke-width:2px
    style D fill:#e65100,color:#fff,stroke:#bf360c,stroke-width:2px
    style E fill:#b71c1c,color:#fff,stroke:#b71c1c,stroke-width:2px
    style G fill:#1b5e20,color:#fff,stroke:#1b5e20,stroke-width:2px
    style K fill:#b71c1c,color:#fff,stroke:#b71c1c,stroke-width:2px

flowchart TD
    A["8月 中报"] --> B{"H1业绩?"}
    B -->|"收入+15%以上\n主品牌恢复正增长"| C["强劲"]
    B -->|"收入+8~12%\n主品牌持平"| D["平稳"]
    B -->|"收入不足+8%\n主品牌继续负增长"| E["疲弱"]
    C --> F{"Puma进展?"}
    F -->|"顺利"| G["✅ 确认S2\nPE 18-22x"]
    F -->|"延迟"| H["S1偏强\nPE 15-17x"]
    D --> I["维持S1或S3"]
    E --> J{"Puma进展?"}
    J -->|"也不顺"| K["🔴 确认S4"]
    J -->|"顺利"| L["S1偏弱\n减仓观察"]
    style G fill:#1b5e20,color:#fff,stroke:#1b5e20,stroke-width:2px
    style K fill:#b71c1c,color:#fff,stroke:#b71c1c,stroke-width:2px
    style C fill:#1b5e20,color:#fff,stroke:#1b5e20,stroke-width:2px
    style E fill:#b71c1c,color:#fff,stroke:#b71c1c,stroke-width:2px

flowchart LR
    S1["📍 S1 当前状态\nIP矩阵高增长期\nPE 25-35x | 价格 180-260"]
    S2["🟢 S2 全球IP平台\nPE 35-50x\n价格 300-450"]
    S3["🟡 S3 增长放缓\nPE 15-25x\n价格 120-200"]
    S4["🔴 S4 潮流退潮\nPE 8-15x\n价格 60-120"]

    S1 -->|"多IP爆发 + 海外过半\n+ 电影/授权突破"| S2
    S1 -->|"LABUBU自然降温\n+ 新IP能补但不爆"| S3
    S1 -->|"LABUBU断崖\n+ 新IP失败 + 监管重击"| S4
    S3 -.->|"新IP意外爆发"| S2
    S4 -.->|"需求触底 + IP重组"| S1

    style S1 fill:#1565c0,color:#fff,stroke:#0d47a1,stroke-width:3px
    style S2 fill:#1b5e20,color:#fff,stroke:#1b5e20,stroke-width:2px
    style S3 fill:#e65100,color:#fff,stroke:#bf360c,stroke-width:2px
    style S4 fill:#b71c1c,color:#fff,stroke:#b71c1c,stroke-width:2px

flowchart TD
    A{"综合评估结果"} -->|"多数超预期"| B["🟢 S1偏强 → S2预备\nPE 30-35x | 价格 240-280"]
    A -->|"多数符合预期"| C["🟡 维持S1\nPE 25-30x | 价格 200-240"]
    A -->|"多数低于预期"| D["🔴 S1偏弱 → S3预警\nPE 20-25x | 价格 160-200"]
    B --> E(["下一步：Q1验证LABUBU后劲"])
    C --> F(["下一步：Q1数据决定方向"])
    D --> G(["下一步：密切监控降温速度"])
    style B fill:#1b5e20,color:#fff,stroke:#1b5e20,stroke-width:2px
    style C fill:#e65100,color:#fff,stroke:#bf360c,stroke-width:2px
    style D fill:#b71c1c,color:#fff,stroke:#b71c1c,stroke-width:2px

flowchart TD
    A["Q1零售数据"] --> B{"LABUBU表现?"}
    B -->|"维持热度"| C{"新IP表现?"}
    B -->|"明显降温"| D{"新IP表现?"}
    C -->|"也爆"| E["🟢🟢 最佳路径\nIP矩阵全面开花"]
    C -->|"平淡"| F["🟡 隐患\n还是靠LABUBU"]
    D -->|"成功接力"| G["🟢 健康轮转\n不依赖单一IP"]
    D -->|"也冷"| H["🔴 危险\n潮流整体退潮"]
    E --> I(["持有，可加仓200股"])
    F --> J(["持有但提高警惕"])
    G --> K(["持有"])
    H --> L(["减仓200股"])
    style E fill:#1b5e20,color:#fff,stroke:#1b5e20,stroke-width:2px
    style G fill:#1b5e20,color:#fff,stroke:#1b5e20,stroke-width:2px
    style F fill:#e65100,color:#fff,stroke:#bf360c,stroke-width:2px
    style H fill:#b71c1c,color:#fff,stroke:#b71c1c,stroke-width:2px

flowchart LR
    A["2024H1\n诞生 +726%"] --> B["2024H2\n爆发增长"]
    B --> C["2025H1\n高峰 占比34.7%"]
    C --> D{"2025H2~now\n????"}
    D -->|"电影续命"| E["🟢 延长生命周期"]
    D -->|"自然衰退"| F["🟡 正常降温"]
    D -->|"需求断崖"| G["🔴 崩塌"]
    style A fill:#0d47a1,color:#fff,stroke:#0d47a1,stroke-width:2px
    style B fill:#1565c0,color:#fff,stroke:#1565c0,stroke-width:2px
    style C fill:#1e88e5,color:#fff,stroke:#1565c0,stroke-width:2px
    style E fill:#1b5e20,color:#fff,stroke:#1b5e20,stroke-width:2px
    style F fill:#e65100,color:#fff,stroke:#bf360c,stroke-width:2px
    style G fill:#b71c1c,color:#fff,stroke:#b71c1c,stroke-width:2px

pie title 12个月后最可能的状态
    "S1 维持高增长 20%" : 20
    "S2 全球IP平台 30%" : 30
    "S3 增长放缓 40%" : 40
    "S4 潮流退潮 10%" : 10

flowchart TD
    ROOT["恒生科技 ~4,922\n从高点-27%"] --> L1
    ROOT --> L2
    ROOT --> L3

    L1["🔴 第一层：AI叙事缺席\n结构性问题"]
    L2["🟡 第二层：盈利停滞\n基本面问题"]
    L3["🟠 第三层：地缘冲击\n周期性问题"]

    L1 --> L1a["成分股=消费互联网\n阿里/美团/京东/快手"]
    L1 --> L1b["vs 美股AI链\nNVIDIA/MU/台积电"]
    L1a --> L1c["❌ 缺少AI硬件供应链敞口\n资金从港股→美股AI"]

    L2 --> L2a["2025年盈利+4%\n天花板已到"]
    L2 --> L2b["2026E +8%\nvs 美股科技+50-200%"]

    L3 --> L3a["美伊战争\n油价$106"]
    L3 --> L3b["港股跌~4%\n⏳ 战争降级后可修复"]

    style L1 fill:#b71c1c,color:#fff,stroke:#b71c1c,stroke-width:2px
    style L2 fill:#e65100,color:#fff,stroke:#bf360c,stroke-width:2px
    style L3 fill:#ff6f00,color:#fff,stroke:#e65100,stroke-width:2px
    style L1c fill:#3a1515,color:#f44336,stroke:#b71c1c,stroke-width:1px
    style L3b fill:#1b3a1b,color:#4caf50,stroke:#1b5e20,stroke-width:1px

flowchart LR
    S1["📍 S1 当前状态\n消费互联网+地缘折价\nPE 20-24x | 4,500-5,500"]
    S2["🟢 S2 盈利复苏\nAI变现+消费回暖\nPE 25-30x | 5,500-6,500"]
    S3["🟡 S3 震荡磨底\n盈利平淡+资金观望\nPE 18-22x | 4,200-5,000"]
    S4["🔴 S4 衰退冲击\n战争升级+全球衰退\nPE 15-18x | 3,500-4,200"]

    S1 -->|"Q1盈利超预期\n+ AI变现数据"| S2
    S1 -->|"盈利平淡\n+ 资金持续流出"| S3
    S1 -->|"战争全面升级\n+ 全球衰退"| S4
    S3 -.->|"政策刺激\n+ 南向大幅流入"| S1
    S4 -.->|"战争降级\n+ 极端超跌反弹"| S3

    style S1 fill:#1565c0,color:#fff,stroke:#0d47a1,stroke-width:3px
    style S2 fill:#1b5e20,color:#fff,stroke:#1b5e20,stroke-width:2px
    style S3 fill:#e65100,color:#fff,stroke:#bf360c,stroke-width:2px
    style S4 fill:#b71c1c,color:#fff,stroke:#b71c1c,stroke-width:2px

flowchart TD
    A["4月 特朗普访问北京"] --> B{"中美关系信号?"}

    B -->|"积极\n关税缓和/合作声明"| C["🟢 港股整体反弹\n恒科+5-10%"]
    B -->|"中性\n礼节性访问"| D["🟡 维持震荡\n无实质影响"]
    B -->|"未成行/恶化\n新制裁威胁"| E["🔴 港股承压\n科技股首当其冲"]

    C --> F(["关注：南向资金是否跟进放大"])
    D --> G(["关注：等Q1财报验证基本面"])
    E --> H(["关注：是否跌破4,300支撑"])

    style C fill:#1b5e20,color:#fff,stroke:#1b5e20,stroke-width:2px
    style D fill:#e65100,color:#fff,stroke:#bf360c,stroke-width:2px
    style E fill:#b71c1c,color:#fff,stroke:#b71c1c,stroke-width:2px

flowchart TD
    A["5月 Q1财报集中发布\n阿里/腾讯/美团/京东"] --> B{"盈利增速?"}

    B -->|"增速>10%\n+ AI变现数据"| C["🟢 确认进入S2\n估值修复启动"]
    B -->|"增速5-10%\n符合预期"| D["🟡 维持S1\n继续等信号"]
    B -->|"增速<5%\n或miss预期"| E["🔴 滑向S3\n资金加速流出"]

    C --> F{"同时南向资金?"}
    F -->|"大幅流入"| G["✅ 上行确认\n目标5,500-6,000"]
    F -->|"不跟进"| H["修复受限\n只到5,200"]

    E --> I{"是否有AI变现亮点?"}
    I -->|"个别有"| J["分化行情\n指数弱但个股强"]
    I -->|"全无"| K["⚠️ S3确认\n考虑减仓"]

    style C fill:#1b5e20,color:#fff,stroke:#1b5e20,stroke-width:2px
    style D fill:#e65100,color:#fff,stroke:#bf360c,stroke-width:2px
    style E fill:#b71c1c,color:#fff,stroke:#b71c1c,stroke-width:2px
    style G fill:#1b5e20,color:#fff,stroke:#1b5e20,stroke-width:2px
    style K fill:#b71c1c,color:#fff,stroke:#b71c1c,stroke-width:2px

flowchart TD
    A["美伊冲突走向\n持续监控"] --> B{"战争态势?"}

    B -->|"场景A 快速解决\n停火/谈判 35%"| C["🟢 油价回落至$80\n港股修复4%+"]
    B -->|"场景B 有限打击\n持续低烈度 45%"| D["🟡 油价$90-110\n港股维持承压"]
    B -->|"场景C 全面升级\n霍尔木兹封锁 20%"| E["🔴 油价$130+\n恒科跌破4,300"]

    C --> F(["释放仓位空间\n可考虑加仓港股"])
    D --> G(["维持现状\n不加不减"])
    E --> H(["止损信号触发\n减仓1/3"])

    style C fill:#1b5e20,color:#fff,stroke:#1b5e20,stroke-width:2px
    style D fill:#e65100,color:#fff,stroke:#bf360c,stroke-width:2px
    style E fill:#b71c1c,color:#fff,stroke:#b71c1c,stroke-width:2px

flowchart TD
    CLAIM["小红书: PE 21x 比大底28x便宜\n所以是好机会?"]
    CLAIM --> CHECK{"PE变低的原因是什么?"}

    CHECK -->|"2022: 盈利崩塌\n分母E极小→PE被动拉高"| OLD["PE 28x\n≠ 真的贵"]
    CHECK -->|"2026: 市场不给溢价\n增长前景不够"| NOW["PE 21x\n≠ 真的便宜"]

    OLD --> RESULT1["当时买入赚钱\n因为E后来恢复了"]
    NOW --> RESULT2["现在PE低\n代表市场更悲观"]

    RESULT2 --> CONCLUSION["⚠️ 不能直接比较\n两种PE的性质完全不同"]

    style CLAIM fill:#0d47a1,color:#fff,stroke:#0d47a1,stroke-width:2px
    style CONCLUSION fill:#e65100,color:#fff,stroke:#bf360c,stroke-width:2px
    style OLD fill:#1b5e20,color:#fff,stroke:#1b5e20,stroke-width:1px
    style NOW fill:#b71c1c,color:#fff,stroke:#b71c1c,stroke-width:1px